545-0158/02 – Forecasting in raw materials industry (PSP)

Gurantor departmentDepartment of Economics and Control SystemsCredits4
Subject guarantorprof. Ing. Jaroslav Dvořáček, CSc.Subject version guarantorprof. Ing. Jaroslav Dvořáček, CSc.
Study levelundergraduate or graduateRequirementCompulsory
Year3Semestersummer
Study languageCzech
Year of introduction2020/2021Year of cancellation
Intended for the facultiesHGFIntended for study typesBachelor
Instruction secured by
LoginNameTuitorTeacher giving lectures
DVO30 prof. Ing. Jaroslav Dvořáček, CSc.
ROL74 Ing. Markéta Laštůvková, Ph.D.
SOU70 RNDr. Radmila Sousedíková, Ph.D.
Extent of instruction for forms of study
Form of studyWay of compl.Extent
Full-time Credit and Examination 2+1
Part-time Credit and Examination 8+4

Subject aims expressed by acquired skills and competences

Selection of prognostic techniques and their application in the field of managerial and planning activities. Knowledge of basic prognostic methods and their use on company level. Skill concerning analysis of economic indicators development.

Teaching methods

Lectures
Tutorials

Summary

The subject familiarizes with role and significance of forecasting in decision making process and managerial process. There are presented basic terms of forecasting activity and basic groups of prognostic methods. There are mentioned the most renowned global forecasts. Prognostic techniques are applied in raw materials industry, namely for most important so called critical raw materials.

Compulsory literature:

HYNDMAN, Rob J. and George ATHANASOPOULOS. Forecasting: principles and practice. 2nd edition. Melbourne: OTexts, 2018. ISBN 978-0-9875071-1-2. ELLIOTT, Graham, Clive William John GRANGER and Allan TIMMERMANN, ed. Handbook of economic forecasting. Volume 1. Amsterdam: Elsevier/North-Holland, 2006. RUNGE I. C. Mining economics and strategy. Society for Mining, Metallurgy and Exploration, Inc. Littleton, 1998. CLEMENTS M. P.,HENDRY D. F.(ed.): A Companion to Economic Forecasting. 2004. Wiley Online Library.

Recommended literature:

EVANS, Michael K. Practical business forecasting [online]. Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons, 2008 [cit. 2017-11-14]. ISBN 978-0-470-75562-4. DVOŘÁČEK, Jaroslav. Forecasting. VŠB-TU Ostrava, HGF, 2007. LIU, Lon-Mu. Time series analysis and forecasting. 2nd ed. Villa Park: Scientific Computing Associates, 2006. ISBN 0-9765056-6-5. MAISEL, Lawrence and Gary COKINS. Predictive business analytics: forward-looking capabilities to improve business performance. Hoboken: Wiley, 2014. ISBN 978-1-118-17556-9.

Way of continuous check of knowledge in the course of semester

Working out of assigned examples in the field of forecasting. Oral examination.

E-learning

Learning management system Moodle (lms.vsb.cz).

Other requirements

Working out of assigned computing programmes.

Prerequisities

Subject has no prerequisities.

Co-requisities

Subject has no co-requisities.

Subject syllabus:

1. Task of forecasting activity. 2. Possibility of forecasting. 3. Forecasting and decision making process. 4. Forecast as starting point of strategic decisions, specification in the field of raw materials. 5. Forecasts classification. 6. Methods of forecasting. 7. Methods of forecasting based on analogy. 8. Methods of forecasting based on information of experts. 9. Methods of forecasting based on prolongation. 10. Methods of forecasting based on system approach. 11. Forecasts of Rome club. 12. Global forecasts in the field of raw material sources. 13. Prediction of production, consumption and price development of selected raw materials.

Conditions for subject completion

Part-time form (validity from: 2020/2021 Winter semester)
Task nameType of taskMax. number of points
(act. for subtasks)
Min. number of pointsMax. počet pokusů
Credit and Examination Credit and Examination 100 (100) 51
        Credit Credit 30 (30) 17
                Examples Other task type 30  17
        Examination Examination 70 (70) 34 3
                Oral examination Oral examination 70  34
Mandatory attendence participation: 80% attendance

Show history

Conditions for subject completion and attendance at the exercises within ISP: Consultations 1x a month, participation in selected exercises with presentation of tasks assigned at consultations. Oral exam after previous written preparation

Show history

Occurrence in study plans

Academic yearProgrammeBranch/spec.Spec.ZaměřeníFormStudy language Tut. centreYearWSType of duty
2024/2025 (B0724A290003) Mineral Economics EMS K Czech Most 3 Compulsory study plan
2024/2025 (B0724A290003) Mineral Economics EMS P Czech Ostrava 3 Compulsory study plan
2024/2025 (B0724A290003) Mineral Economics EMS K Czech Ostrava 3 Compulsory study plan
2023/2024 (B0724A290003) Mineral Economics EMS K Czech Ostrava 3 Compulsory study plan
2023/2024 (B0724A290003) Mineral Economics EMS K Czech Most 3 Compulsory study plan
2023/2024 (B0724A290003) Mineral Economics EMS P Czech Ostrava 3 Compulsory study plan
2022/2023 (B0724A290003) Mineral Economics EMS K Czech Most 3 Compulsory study plan
2022/2023 (B0724A290003) Mineral Economics EMS K Czech Ostrava 3 Compulsory study plan
2022/2023 (B0724A290003) Mineral Economics EMS P Czech Ostrava 3 Compulsory study plan
2021/2022 (B0724A290003) Mineral Economics EMS K Czech Most 3 Compulsory study plan
2021/2022 (B0724A290003) Mineral Economics EMS K Czech Ostrava 3 Compulsory study plan
2021/2022 (B0724A290003) Mineral Economics EMS P Czech Ostrava 3 Compulsory study plan
2020/2021 (B0724A290003) Mineral Economics EMS K Czech Most 3 Compulsory study plan
2020/2021 (B0724A290003) Mineral Economics EMS K Czech Ostrava 3 Compulsory study plan
2020/2021 (B0724A290003) Mineral Economics EMS P Czech Ostrava 3 Compulsory study plan

Occurrence in special blocks

Block nameAcademic yearForm of studyStudy language YearWSType of blockBlock owner

Assessment of instruction



2023/2024 Summer