545-0276/03 – Forecasting and the Enterprise Strategy (PaSP)

Gurantor departmentDepartment of Economics and Control SystemsCredits4
Subject guarantorprof. Ing. Jaroslav Dvořáček, CSc.Subject version guarantorprof. Ing. Jaroslav Dvořáček, CSc.
Study levelundergraduate or graduateRequirementCompulsory
Year3Semestersummer
Study languageCzech
Year of introduction1990/1991Year of cancellation2018/2019
Intended for the facultiesHGFIntended for study typesBachelor
Instruction secured by
LoginNameTuitorTeacher giving lectures
DVO30 prof. Ing. Jaroslav Dvořáček, CSc.
ROL74 Ing. Markéta Laštůvková, Ph.D.
Extent of instruction for forms of study
Form of studyWay of compl.Extent
Full-time Credit and Examination 2+1
Combined Credit and Examination 10+0

Subject aims expressed by acquired skills and competences

Understanding and aplication of basic forecasting methods

Teaching methods

Lectures
Individual consultations
Tutorials

Summary

Forecasting and decision-making process. Basic terms of forecasting activity, forecasts classification. Forecasting methods: methods of analogy, methods based on experts' information, extrapolation methods, methods based on system approach. Application of forecasting methods in enterprise practice. Forecasting in the sphere of raw materials resources. Forecasting as the basis of strategic decisions.

Compulsory literature:

Makridakis, S. et al.: Forecasting : Methods and applications. Second Edition. John Wiley & Sons, 1983. Dvořáček,J.: Forecasting. Ostrava : VŠB-TUO, 2007.43 pp.

Recommended literature:

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Way of continuous check of knowledge in the course of semester

Regular feedback on the progress of knowledge during the current term is provided by seminar works.

E-learning

Další požadavky na studenta

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Prerequisities

Subject has no prerequisities.

Co-requisities

Subject has no co-requisities.

Subject syllabus:

1. Introduction – forecasting and decision making process. 2. Forecasting task – governmental level and enterprise level. 3. Fundamental terms of forecasting activity – term of forecasting, forecasting time horizon, forecast verification, forecast probability, development of forecasting activity. 4. Forecasts classification – classification based on forecasting course, classification based on time horizon length, classification based on forecast subject. 5. Methods of forecasting – possible classification ways. 5.1. Methods based on analogy – biological growth analogy, historical analogy. 5.2. Methods based on information of experts –questionnaire, Delphi method, brainstorming. 5.3. Methods based on prolongation – graphical and numerical prolongation. 5.4 .Methods based on system approach – morphology method, method of cross interaction. 6. Application of forecasting methods in enterprise practice. 6.1. Differential estimation of trend line. 6.2. Direct estimation of trend line. 7. Forecasts in the field of raw material sources. 8. Forecasts as a starting point of strategic decisions – term of strategy, enterprise strategies basic types, forecasts and strategic decisions.

Conditions for subject completion

Full-time form (validity from: 2012/2013 Winter semester, validity until: 2018/2019 Summer semester)
Task nameType of taskMax. number of points
(act. for subtasks)
Min. number of points
Exercises evaluation and Examination Credit and Examination 100 (100) 51
        Exercises evaluation Credit 33 (33) 17
                Project Project 20  10
                Written exam Written test 13  7
        Examination Examination 67 (67) 34
                Written examination Written examination 37  19
                Oral Oral examination 30  15
Mandatory attendence parzicipation:

Show history

Occurrence in study plans

Academic yearProgrammeField of studySpec.FormStudy language Tut. centreYearWSType of duty
2018/2019 (B2102) Mineral Raw Materials (2102R001) Economics and Management in the Field of Raw Materials P Czech Ostrava 3 Compulsory study plan
2017/2018 (B2102) Mineral Raw Materials (2102R001) Economics and Management in the Field of Raw Materials P Czech Ostrava 3 Compulsory study plan
2016/2017 (B2102) Mineral Raw Materials (2102R001) Economics and Management in the Field of Raw Materials P Czech Ostrava 3 Compulsory study plan
2015/2016 (B2102) Mineral Raw Materials (2102R001) Economics and Management in the Field of Raw Materials P Czech Ostrava 3 Compulsory study plan
2014/2015 (B2102) Mineral Raw Materials (2102R001) Economics and Management in the Field of Raw Materials P Czech Ostrava 3 Compulsory study plan
2013/2014 (B2102) Mineral Raw Materials (2102R001) Economics and Management in the Field of Raw Materials P Czech Ostrava 3 Compulsory study plan
2012/2013 (B2102) Mineral Raw Materials (2102R001) Economics and Management in the Field of Raw Materials P Czech Ostrava 3 Compulsory study plan
2011/2012 (B2102) Mineral Raw Materials (2102R001) Economics and Management in the Field of Raw Materials P Czech Ostrava 3 Compulsory study plan
2010/2011 (B2102) Mineral Raw Materials (2102R001) Economics and Management in the Field of Raw Materials P Czech Ostrava 3 Compulsory study plan
2009/2010 (B2102) Mineral Raw Materials (2102R001) Economics and Management in the Field of Raw Materials P Czech Ostrava 3 Compulsory study plan
2007/2008 (N2102) Mineral Raw Materials (3902T033) System Engineering in Raw Materials Industry P Czech Ostrava 2 Compulsory study plan
2007/2008 (B2102) Mineral Raw Materials (2102R001) Economics and Management in the Field of Raw Materials P Czech Ostrava 3 Compulsory study plan
2006/2007 (N2102) Mineral Raw Materials (3902T033) System Engineering in Raw Materials Industry P Czech Ostrava 1 Compulsory study plan
2006/2007 (B2102) Mineral Raw Materials (2102R001) Economics and Management in the Field of Raw Materials P Czech Ostrava 3 Compulsory study plan
2006/2007 (B2102) Mineral Raw Materials (2102R001) Economics and Management in the Field of Raw Materials K Czech Most 3 Compulsory study plan
2005/2006 (N2102) Mineral Raw Materials (3902T033) System Engineering in Raw Materials Industry P Czech Ostrava 1 Choice-compulsory study plan

Occurrence in special blocks

Block nameAcademic yearForm of studyStudy language YearWSType of blockBlock owner
ECTS - FMG 2018/2019 Full-time English Optional 501 - Study Office stu. block
ECTS - FMG 2017/2018 Full-time English Optional 501 - Study Office stu. block
ECTS - FMG 2016/2017 Full-time English Optional 501 - Study Office stu. block
O - ECTS FMG 2015/2016 Full-time Czech Optional 501 - Study Office stu. block
O - ECTS FMG - Bc. 2014/2015 Full-time Czech Optional 501 - Study Office stu. block
O - ECTS FMG - Bc. 2013/2014 Full-time Czech Optional 501 - Study Office stu. block
O - ECTS FMG - Bc. 2012/2013 Full-time Czech Optional 501 - Study Office stu. block