545-0276/05 – Forecasting and the Enterprise Strategy (PaSP)
| Gurantor department | Department of Economics and Control Systems | Credits | 4 |
| Subject guarantor | prof. Ing. Jaroslav Dvořáček, CSc. | Subject version guarantor | prof. Ing. Jaroslav Dvořáček, CSc. |
| Study level | undergraduate or graduate | | |
| | Study language | English |
| Year of introduction | 2018/2019 | Year of cancellation | 2022/2023 |
| Intended for the faculties | HGF | Intended for study types | Bachelor |
Subject aims expressed by acquired skills and competences
Understanding and aplication of basic forecasting methods
Teaching methods
Lectures
Individual consultations
Tutorials
Summary
Forecasting and decision-making process. Basic terms of forecasting activity,
forecasts classification. Forecasting methods: methods of analogy, methods
based on experts' information, extrapolation methods, methods based on system
approach. Application of forecasting methods in enterprise practice.
Forecasting in the sphere of raw materials resources. Forecasting as the basis
of strategic decisions.
Compulsory literature:
Makridakis, S. et al.: Forecasting : Methods and applications. Second Edition.
John Wiley & Sons, 1983.
Dvořáček,J.: Forecasting. Ostrava : VŠB-TUO, 2007.43 pp.
Recommended literature:
Makridakis, S. et al.: Forecasting : Methods and applications. Second Edition.
John Wiley & Sons, 1983.
Dvořáček,J.: Forecasting. Ostrava : VŠB-TUO, 2007.43 pp.
Way of continuous check of knowledge in the course of semester
Regular feedback on the progress of knowledge during the current term is provided by seminar works. Oral examination after preceeding written preparation.
E-learning
Other requirements
80 % presence at seminars
Prerequisities
Subject has no prerequisities.
Co-requisities
Subject has no co-requisities.
Subject syllabus:
1. Introduction – forecasting and decision making process.
2. Forecasting task – governmental level and enterprise level.
3. Fundamental terms of forecasting activity – term of forecasting, forecasting time horizon, forecast verification, forecast probability, development of forecasting activity.
4. Forecasts classification – classification based on forecasting course, classification based on time horizon length, classification based on forecast subject.
5. Methods of forecasting – possible classification ways.
5.1. Methods based on analogy – biological growth analogy, historical analogy.
5.2. Methods based on information of experts –questionnaire, Delphi method, brainstorming.
5.3. Methods based on prolongation – graphical and numerical prolongation.
5.4 .Methods based on system approach – morphology method, method of cross interaction.
6. Application of forecasting methods in enterprise practice.
6.1. Differential estimation of trend line.
6.2. Direct estimation of trend line.
7. Forecasts in the field of raw material sources.
8. Forecasts as a starting point of strategic decisions – term of
strategy, enterprise strategies basic types, forecasts and
strategic decisions.
Conditions for subject completion
Conditions for completion are defined only for particular subject version and form of study
Occurrence in study plans
Occurrence in special blocks
Assessment of instruction
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