545-0928/01 – Forecasting Methods in Economic Practice (progn)

Gurantor departmentDepartment of Economics and Control SystemsCredits10
Subject guarantorprof. Ing. Jaroslav Dvořáček, CSc.Subject version guarantorprof. Ing. Jaroslav Dvořáček, CSc.
Study levelpostgraduateRequirementChoice-compulsory
YearSemesterwinter + summer
Study languageCzech
Year of introduction1998/1999Year of cancellation2010/2011
Intended for the facultiesHGF, FMTIntended for study typesDoctoral
Instruction secured by
LoginNameTuitorTeacher giving lectures
DVO30 prof. Ing. Jaroslav Dvořáček, CSc.
Extent of instruction for forms of study
Form of studyWay of compl.Extent
Full-time Credit and Examination 2+0
Combined Credit and Examination 2+0

Subject aims expressed by acquired skills and competences

Summary of forecasting techniques and their application in economic practice. Valuation of suitability of their utilization.

Teaching methods

Individual consultations
Other activities

Summary

Forecasting and management, the need for and role of forecasting, basic terms. Approaches to forecasting. An overview of forecasting techniques. Quantitative forecasting methods: decomposition methods for time - series forecasting, regression methods. Judgemental approaches to forecasting. Technological and environmental forecasting: long term trends, the Delphi method, cross - impact method. The industrial and information revolutions. New product forecasting.

Compulsory literature:

Makridakis S. , Wheelwright S.C., Hyndman, R.J.: Forecasting. Methods and Applications. Third Edition. Johns Wiley & Sons, New York, 1998

Recommended literature:

Carnot N., Koen V., Tissot B.: Economic forecasting. Palgrave Macmillan, 2005

Way of continuous check of knowledge in the course of semester

Regular feedback on the progress of knowledge during the current term is provided by seminar works, semester projects, and knowledge checks.

E-learning

Další požadavky na studenta

Prerequisities

Subject has no prerequisities.

Co-requisities

Subject has no co-requisities.

Subject syllabus:

1. Introduction – forecasting and decision making process. 2. Forecasting task – governmental level and enterprise level. 3. Fundamental terms of forecasting activity – term of forecasting, forecasting time horizon, forecast verification, forecast probability, development of forecasting activity. 4. Forecasts classification – classification based on forecasting course, classification based on time horizon length, classification based on forecast subject. 5. Methods of forecasting – possible classification ways. 5.1. Methods based on analogy – biological growth analogy, historical analogy. 5.2. Methods based on information of experts –questionnaire, Delphi method, brainstorming. 5.3. Methods based on prolongation – graphical and numerical prolongation. 5.4 .Methods based on system approach – morphology method, method of cross interaction. 6. Application of forecasting methods in enterprise practice. 6.1. Differential estimation of trend line. 6.2. Direct estimation of trend line. 7. Forecasts in the field of raw material sources. 8. Forecasts as a starting point of strategic decisions – term of strategy, enterprise strategies basic types, forecasts and strategic decisions.

Conditions for subject completion

Combined form (validity from: 1960/1961 Summer semester, validity until: 2012/2013 Summer semester)
Task nameType of taskMax. number of points
(act. for subtasks)
Min. number of points
Exercises evaluation and Examination Credit and Examination 100 (145) 51
        Examination Examination 100  0
        Exercises evaluation Credit 45  0
Mandatory attendence parzicipation:

Show history

Occurrence in study plans

Academic yearProgrammeField of studySpec.FormStudy language Tut. centreYearWSType of duty
2010/2011 (P3925) Management of Industrial Systems P Czech Ostrava Choice-compulsory study plan
2010/2011 (P3925) Management of Industrial Systems K Czech Ostrava Choice-compulsory study plan
2010/2011 (P3925) Management of Industrial Systems P Czech Ostrava Optional study plan
2010/2011 (P3925) Management of Industrial Systems K Czech Ostrava Optional study plan
2009/2010 (P3925) Management of Industrial Systems P Czech Ostrava Choice-compulsory study plan
2009/2010 (P3925) Management of Industrial Systems K Czech Ostrava Choice-compulsory study plan
2009/2010 (P3925) Management of Industrial Systems P Czech Ostrava Optional study plan
2009/2010 (P3925) Management of Industrial Systems K Czech Ostrava Optional study plan
2008/2009 (P3925) Management of Industrial Systems P Czech Ostrava Choice-compulsory study plan
2008/2009 (P3925) Management of Industrial Systems K Czech Ostrava Choice-compulsory study plan
2008/2009 (P3925) Management of Industrial Systems P Czech Ostrava Optional study plan
2008/2009 (P3925) Management of Industrial Systems K Czech Ostrava Optional study plan

Occurrence in special blocks

Block nameAcademic yearForm of studyStudy language YearWSType of blockBlock owner