545-0928/01 – Forecasting Methods in Economic Practice (progn)
Gurantor department | Department of Economics and Control Systems | Credits | 10 |
Subject guarantor | prof. Ing. Jaroslav Dvořáček, CSc. | Subject version guarantor | prof. Ing. Jaroslav Dvořáček, CSc. |
Study level | postgraduate | Requirement | Choice-compulsory |
Year | | Semester | winter + summer |
| | Study language | Czech |
Year of introduction | 1998/1999 | Year of cancellation | 2010/2011 |
Intended for the faculties | HGF, FMT | Intended for study types | Doctoral |
Subject aims expressed by acquired skills and competences
Summary of forecasting techniques and their application in economic practice. Valuation of suitability of their utilization.
Teaching methods
Individual consultations
Other activities
Summary
Forecasting and management, the need for and role of forecasting, basic terms. Approaches to forecasting. An overview of forecasting techniques. Quantitative forecasting methods: decomposition methods for time - series forecasting, regression methods. Judgemental approaches to forecasting. Technological and environmental forecasting: long term trends, the Delphi method, cross - impact method. The industrial and information revolutions. New product forecasting.
Compulsory literature:
Makridakis S. , Wheelwright S.C., Hyndman, R.J.: Forecasting. Methods and
Applications. Third Edition. Johns Wiley & Sons, New York, 1998
Recommended literature:
Carnot N., Koen V., Tissot B.: Economic forecasting. Palgrave Macmillan, 2005
Way of continuous check of knowledge in the course of semester
Regular feedback on the progress of knowledge during the current term is provided by seminar works, semester projects, and knowledge checks.
E-learning
Other requirements
Prerequisities
Subject has no prerequisities.
Co-requisities
Subject has no co-requisities.
Subject syllabus:
1. Introduction – forecasting and decision making process.
2. Forecasting task – governmental level and enterprise level.
3. Fundamental terms of forecasting activity – term of forecasting, forecasting time horizon, forecast verification, forecast probability, development of forecasting activity.
4. Forecasts classification – classification based on forecasting course, classification based on time horizon length, classification based on forecast subject.
5. Methods of forecasting – possible classification ways.
5.1. Methods based on analogy – biological growth analogy, historical analogy.
5.2. Methods based on information of experts –questionnaire, Delphi method, brainstorming.
5.3. Methods based on prolongation – graphical and numerical prolongation.
5.4 .Methods based on system approach – morphology method, method of cross interaction.
6. Application of forecasting methods in enterprise practice.
6.1. Differential estimation of trend line.
6.2. Direct estimation of trend line.
7. Forecasts in the field of raw material sources.
8. Forecasts as a starting point of strategic decisions – term of
strategy, enterprise strategies basic types, forecasts and
strategic decisions.
Conditions for subject completion
Occurrence in study plans
Occurrence in special blocks
Assessment of instruction
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