545-0928/02 – Forecasting Methods in Economic Practice (progn)
| Gurantor department | Department of Economics and Control Systems | Credits | 10 |
| Subject guarantor | prof. Ing. Jaroslav Dvořáček, CSc. | Subject version guarantor | prof. Ing. Jaroslav Dvořáček, CSc. |
| Study level | postgraduate | Requirement | Choice-compulsory |
| Year | | Semester | winter + summer |
| | Study language | Czech |
| Year of introduction | 2003/2004 | Year of cancellation | 2021/2022 |
| Intended for the faculties | HGF, FMT | Intended for study types | Doctoral |
Subject aims expressed by acquired skills and competences
Summary of forecasting techniques and their application in economic practice. Valuation of suitability of their utilization.
Teaching methods
Individual consultations
Other activities
Summary
Forecasting and management, the need for and role of forecasting, basic terms. Approaches to forecasting. An overview of forecasting techniques. Quantitative forecasting methods: decomposition methods for time - series forecasting, regression methods. Judgemental approaches to forecasting. Technological and environmental forecasting: long term trends, the Delphi method, cross - impact method. The industrial and information revolutions. New product forecasting.
Compulsory literature:
Makridakis S. , Wheelwright S.C., Hyndman, R.J.: Forecasting. Methods and
Applications. Third Edition. Johns Wiley & Sons, New York, 1998
Recommended literature:
Carnot N., Koen V., Tissot B.: Economic forecasting. Palgrave Macmillan, 2005
Way of continuous check of knowledge in the course of semester
Oral examination.
E-learning
Other requirements
Written elaborate processing based on determined subject.
Prerequisities
Subject has no prerequisities.
Co-requisities
Subject has no co-requisities.
Subject syllabus:
1. Forecasting and decision making process.
2. Fundamental terms of forecasting activity
3. Forecasts classification
4. Methods of forecasting
4.1. Methods based on analogy
4.2. Methods based on information of experts
4.3. Methods based on prolongation – graphical and numerical prolongation.
4.4. Methods based on system approach
5. Forecasts in the field of raw material sources.
6. Forecasts as a starting point of strategic decisions
Conditions for subject completion
Occurrence in study plans
Occurrence in special blocks
Assessment of instruction
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